Kyle Korver’s Streak Now at 81 Games: Will He Break the Record?

NBA: Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta HawksPhoto by Daniel Shirey/USA Today

UPDATE (11/14) – Kyle Korver has now extended his streak to 81 games with 2 threes in last night’s game against the Knicks and now has a 55.1% chance of breaking the record. Here are the updated chances of having his streak reach X amount of games:

Streak Length
% Chance
82 games93.7%
83 games87.8%
84 games82.1%
85 games76.6%
86 games71.6%
87 games67.2%
88 games62.9%
89 games59.0%
90 games55.1%

Last night Kyle Korver extended his consecutive games streak with at least one three-pointer made to 80 games. The all-time record was set by Dana Barros who made a three-pointer in 89 straight games. What are the chances he breaks the record? Well, let’s take a look…

First, I had to establish a projected number of three-point attempts we should expect from him going forward. Korver is averaging a career-high 35 minutes a game which was expected going into the season as a projected starter. However, his three-point attempts have gone down from last year and his attempts per minute have gone down considerably. It is too early in the season to be making any huge adjustments based on such a small sample size so I gave him around ~6 attempts per game (more in-line with his last 3 seasons per minute rates).

Now the next step is coming up with an accurate 3PT% for him. As you may already know, Korver has the record for highest 3PT% in a regular season with a 53.6% from downtown in the 2009-10 season. He has outdone even himself so far this year by shooting 54.3%. It would be foolish to assume he can maintain that kind of rate going forward so we need to adjust down a bit, but how much? Korver’s career average sits at 42.0% but has improved quite a bit in the 2nd half of his career. Last season he shot 45.7% so he has definitely been trending “up”. I went ahead and settled on a 44.2% projected clip the rest of the way. In my opinion this is a very fair estimate by giving him a lot of credit for being on fire right now while not completely ignoring the laws of regression to the mean.

I then simulated 20,000 games for him to see how far his streak will go and the estimated chances of when the streak will end. Here are the probabilities for when his streak will end:

Game-Streak
% Chance
81 games6.5%
82 games5.8%
83 games5.2%
84 games5.0%
85 games4.7%
86 games4.5%
87 games4.1%
88 games3.7%
89 games3.4%
90 games3.3%
91 or more46.4%

EDIT: UPDATE – Kyle Korver has now extended his streak to 81 games with 2 threes in last night’s game against the Knicks. Here are the updated chances of having his streak reach X amount of games:

Game-Streak
% Chance
81 games6.5%
82 games5.8%
83 games5.2%
84 games5.0%
85 games4.7%
86 games4.5%
87 games4.1%
88 games3.7%
89 games3.4%
90 games3.3%
91 or more46.4%
 
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