Injury Analysis: New England Patriots Super Bowl Hopes Shrink to 9.3% Without Gronkowski

Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots fans watched in horror as Rob Gronkowski was carted off the field on Sunday in the Patriots win over the Browns. After suffering a forearm injury last season, Gronk spent the majority of the offseason and the beginning of this season rehabbing. This time the Patriots star tight end is done for the season with a torn ACL, MCL and concussion. As one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets, and one of the few receivers that Bill Belichick still trusts, Gronk had been making a huge impact during his return to the Patriots in week 7. In just seven games, Gronk was targeted 67 times and racked up 592 yards and 4 touchdowns.

While this injury will not affect the Patriots getting into the playoffs, it does have an impact on their chances of winning the AFC and more importantly, the Super Bowl. BSports projections assess the impact that the loss of Gronk will have on the Patriots postseason.

New England Patriots Postseason Odds

With Gronk99.3%99.9%27.4%12.2%
Without Gronk98.6%99.8%21.6%9.3%

Prior to the injury, the Patriots had a 27.4% chance of winning the AFC. That probability shrinks 5.8% now that Gronkowski is ruled out for the rest of the season to 21.6%. However, the only numbers that really matter are those for Super Bowl XLVII, and the loss of Gronk shrinks the Patriots Super Bowl chances by 2.9% to 9.3%.


Head over to BSports or for a complete list of NFL projections.

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