Tony Romo Shoots for Dallas Cowboys All-Time Passing Touchdown Record

Photo by Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

Photo by Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

In traditional Dallas fashion, the Cowboys take the field on Thanksgiving Day as they look to gain some ground in the tight NFC East race by playing the Oakland Raiders at home.

Also in traditional Cowboy fashion, Tony Romo has been leading yet another pass-happy offense this season that has placed him in a position to have a shot at breaking the all-time record for most passing touchdowns in a season for a Dallas Cowboy, a mark that he set in the 2007 season.

Over the last 3 years, the Cowboys rank second in the NFL in highest percentage of passing plays run (64%), second in the NFL in highest percentage of offensive yards that are passing (75%), and first in the NFL in percentage of offensive touchdowns that are passing (83%). That final statistic is one that Romo will need to keep up if he wants to break his 2007 mark of 36 passing touchdowns. Heading into the game with Oakland, Romo has 23 passing touchdowns on the year, which ranks fourth in the NFL.

As it currently stands, Romo has a 13.8% chance to break his record and an 8.8% chance to tie it. This weekend’s matchup against a poor Raiders’ pass defense is crucial to his chances for the rest of the season, as it could be an opportunity for Romo to pick up a couple of touchdowns a la Nick Foles in Week 9.

While seven touchdowns is a bit of an overstatement as the Cowboys will likely keep the ball on the ground towards the end of the game considering they will probably have a nice lead, Romo will need to capitalize against the Raiders if he wants to see his chances of breaking the record improve. According to our Decision Maker, Romo is projected to throw 2.3 touchdowns this weekend, a number that he will have to eclipse if he wants to see his odds jump.

Romo's Chances to Break Cowboy Record of 36 Passing Touchdowns

TD's vs. Raiders
Break TD Record
Tie TD Record
Fall Short of TD Record
Pre-Game Chances13.8%8.8%77.4%
0 Touchdowns1.3%1.5%97.2%
1 Touchdown3.7%3.6%92.7%
2 Touchdowns9.0%7.3%83.7%
3 Touchdowns18.6%12.0%69.4%
4 Touchdowns32.8%16.1%51.1%
5 Touchdowns50.0%17.8%32.2%
6 Touchdowns67.2%16.1%16.7%
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