Signing Theo Walcott A Good Move For Arsenal

January 11, 2013

Over the years, Arsenal has been a club known for selling off some of its brightest talents while they are either in their prime, or just about to enter it. The most recent example is Robin Van Persie, who led the EPL in scoring last season for Arsenal, and is on pace to score another 30 goals this season for Manchester United.

Perhaps sensing frustration from the fan base, Arsenal decided to keep one of their top talents, and have reportedly signed Theo Walcott to a 5 year, £25 million contract extension. Walcott has proven to be a key member at Arsenal, and with 8 goals, he has already matched his total from last season. He has proven to be a more efficient scorer this season, but perhaps what is more impressive about Walcott is how efficient he is with all of his touches, not just his shots. The following table shows the impact of the top 10 EPL scorers, with ‘impact touches’ expressing the sum of their goals, assists, shots, and shot assists per 90 minutes. In order to not discredit the primary responsibility of these attackers, I went ahead and weighted goals twice as heavily as the other metrics.

Be sure to check out the Match Analysis tool for insights to this weekend’s games.

Though Walcott’s shot to goal ratio is likely to regress with increased minutes, it is clear that he has an overall offensive impact similar to that of Demba Ba and Maroune Fellaini. Arsenal fans may cringe at Walcott’s price tag, but they must remember that he is only 23 years old, and the average age of these top scorers is 26.6 years. He will have plenty of time to grow along with the rest of the core that Arsenal signed this fall, and recently has been getting his wish of playing in an orthodox striker role (as opposed to out on the wing). Arsenal is unbeaten in its last 4 matches, all of which featured Walcott as the target striker in Arsenal’s attack (4 goals, 2 assists).

So rest easy, Arsenal fans. Theo Walcott may not be Robin Van Persie, but he is learning to have an increased impact on matches, and as a target forward he may be the key to securing Arsenal another top 4 position.

Be sure to check out the Match Analysis tool for insights to this weekend’s games.