The Race for the Top Four In the Premier League

Nearly two-thirds through the season in the Premier League there is certainly room for the tables to turn before season’s end.  At this point last season Chelsea had a hold on the fourth position with 43 points and Tottenham had a strong clutch on third place with 51 points.  Of course, Chelsea dropped all the way to sixth and Tottenham inked its way into fourth place.  It’s a reminder that we are still a long ways from determining who will crack the top fop four and qualify for a vaunted Champions League Position. Utilizing Bloomberg Sports Match Analysis, we can use predictive analytics to get a better idea of what the final table will look like.

The Shoe-Ins

Manchester United (62 points): Don’t look now, but the Red Devils have their 20^th title all but wrapped up.  The Red Devils have four games left against the top seven clubs, but according to the Match Analysis, the odds favor Man U in the matches verse Everton (2.0), Manchester City (2.4), and Chelsea, while the April derby against Arsenal (2.8) favors the Gunners.  Sitting atop the table by a solid nine points, Manchester United should end the season in first place.

Prediction: 89 points.

Manchester City (53 points): The absence of Captain Vincent Kompany has pinned City nine points behind their foes from the other side of the fence.  Kompany does not expect to return until another three more weeks, but with Kun Aguero hitting his stride, the Citizens are looking to make a run for a back-to-back title.  Man City has four games left against top seven clubs, being favored against Tottenham (2.6), Everton (2.6), and Chelsea (2.0), but falling short to rivals Manchester United (2.9).

Prediction: 82 points.

The Probable

Arsenal (41 points): The Gunners seem to have found their stride.  Arsene “The Professor” Wenger is a tactic genius and should put his team into a position to challenge for a Champions League spot.  Theo Walcott is finally a consistent threat, while new signing Olivier Giroud has proved his goal scoring ability in England.  With only three games left against top seven sides, Arsenal is favored against Everton (2.3) and Manchester United (2.5), but are not preferred against rivals Tottenham (3.3).  The road will not be easy, but expect the Gunners to find a way into the Champions League.

Prediction: 71 points

Tottenham (45 points): The Spurs get the nod for fourth place considering their nine game unbeaten streak, and striker Emmanuel Adebayor returning after his hiatus at the African Cup of Nations.  With Welshman Gareth Bale tormenting his defenders on the wing and Texan Clint Dempsey’s nose for goal, expect Totty to snag the fourth seed.  Spurs have five games left against top seven sides, being favored against rivals Arsenal (2.3), Everton (2.3), while falling short to Liverpool (3.5), Chelsea (3.3), Manchester City (2.8).

Prediction: 70 points.

The Hopefuls

Chelsea (46 points): The Blues are truly suffering from the blues with Rafa Benitez at the helm.  After breaking his nose at his former home, St. James Park, Demba Ba will look to continue his terror of goals in the EPL.  With their recent hiccups against Newcastle and Reading, Chelsea will have to dig deep to pull of a top four finish.  Chelsea has five games against top seven squads, falling short at Manchester City (3.9) Liverpool (3.3) and Manchester United (3.5), but are favored against Tottenham (2.3) and Everton (2.3).

Prediction: 68 points

Everton (41 Points): The Toffees are gritty and always fight until the final whistle.  David Moyes, their sensational manager, has produced a tenacious squad, despite the lackluster funds at Goodison Park.  Belgian starlet Marouane Fellaini has led the squad this season with goals, while Leighton Baines has developed into one of England’s most dangerous defenders when getting forward.  Everton may not have the biggest names in England, but they are certainly tough—expect them to challenge for the top four until the final whistle.  The Toffees have six games against the top seven clubs, but are not favored in all the matches; Manchester United (3.7), Arsenal (3.3), Manchester City (2.9), Tottenham (3.3), Liverpool (3.4), and Chelsea (3.3).

Prediction: 61 points

The Dark Horse

Liverpool (36 points): Manager Brendan Rogers has admitted his project at Anfield is nowhere near complete, but with Liverpool’s strong play recently, it is not unfathomable that England’s most successful European cup team pushes for the Champions League.  If Stevie G maintains his classic form and new boy Daniel Sturridge continues his fabulous linkup play with Luis Suarez, expect the Reds to make a little noise.  Not only does the App favor Liverpool in their three matches against top seven squads; Tottenham (2.2), Chelsea (2.2), and Everton (2.2), but Liverpool is actually favored in every single game left in the season!  Even so, due to their lack of depth and unpredictable play at times, anything seems possible for Liverpool.

Prediction: Incomplete 

For a full breakdown of this week’s matches, check out https://www.bloombergsports.com/football/.